Tick, tick, tick … and done.
After eight seasons, Fox’s “24” is coming to an end.
The groundbreaking action drama will air its final real-time episode in May, the victim of a confluence of circumstances: a swelling budget, declining ratings and creative fatigue.
Yet for fans of Jack Bauer, there remains hope. Studio 20th TV is developing a theatrical film that takes Bauer to Europe, and showrunner and executive producer Howard Gordon says other possibilities are being explored as well.
“There are other possible iterations of Jack Bauer and his world,” Gordon said (full Q&A with Gordon about series ending here).
The writing has been on the wall for the show all season, which Gordon said felt like “senior year of high school” to star Kiefer Sutherland.
Because of the constant upward spiral of cast and creative team salaries, any drama begins to carry serious financial weight after its fifth year. Fox paid a hefty $5 million per episode license fee to 20th TV.
Meanwhile, the show’s ratings dropped 16% this season to a 3.8 adults 18-49 rating including DVR — still healthy numbers for a scripted drama, yet not enough to overcome the program’s increasing cost, a budget that was set to climb once again since contracts for Sutherland, Gordon and other key players expire this season.
Then there’s the show’s creative struggle. How many times have “24” characters declared that a looming crisis will be addressed “within the hour,” or has Bauer struggled to gain the respect of the latest CTU chief? Gordon says the show’s writers felt they had exhausted the real-time possibilities for Bauer and never came up with a truly compelling idea for Day 9.
“If one of the writers came up with a good idea, I’d happily pitch it to Kiefer and then happily pitch to a network, whether Fox or someone else,” Gordon said. “We just don’t have that idea, and that’s where everything has to start.”
Producers did sniff around at other networks, namely NBC, with 20th TV offering to lower its license fee to $3.5 million to keep the show going. NBC ran the numbers and passed.
As the weeks tick down to the show’s final hour, Gordon promises a strong finish coupled with the current New York-based storyline taking a dark and creatively risky turn for the final episodes.
For fans, the ending of “24,” along with ABC’s “Lost,” represents the departure of one of the few successful serialized action-driven shows on broadcast, leaving a suitcase-nuke-sized gap in the creative landscape. In addition to its unique real-time storytelling model, the drama pioneered the modern-day TV cliffhanger.
Even its scheduling was an innovation — a returning hit that airs in midseason without repeats.
“I’d like it to be remembered as a revolutionary concept,” Gordon said. “I hope the second thing is that we loved this show so much and never did anything less than our best and I hope we delivered to our fans like we feel we did to ourselves.”
Friday, March 26, 2010
Al Qaeda, then Hamas attack Israel force from Gaza
According to first reports, al Qaeda gunmen shot anti-tank rockets at Israeli force posted on the Gazan border between Kissufim and Khan Younis in southern Gaza, Friday afternoon, March 26. When an Israeli tank and artillery force crossed in to shell the attackers, it was engaged by armed Hamas men. Israeli helicopter gunships were then sent in. Western sources report a big explosion followed by small arms fire, indicating the battle is ongoing. The Palestinians report two dead at least. Ambulances were seen racing to the battle scene on both sides of the border. No comment has come from the IDF spokesman.
On the Palestinian side, the Hamas military arm, Izz-e-dine al Qassam, reported its gunmen attacked an Israeli force which entered southern Gaza from the Kissufim area, while an organization calling itself Taliban-Palestine claimed its men staged the attack..
debkafile continues to track the incident.
On the Palestinian side, the Hamas military arm, Izz-e-dine al Qassam, reported its gunmen attacked an Israeli force which entered southern Gaza from the Kissufim area, while an organization calling itself Taliban-Palestine claimed its men staged the attack..
debkafile continues to track the incident.
Interview with Future Prediction Expert Gerald Celente
It’s the end of the world as the Greater Depression hits after 2010’s failed “W-recovery”
Human Events had the opportunity to interview forecaster extraordinaire Gerald Celente, President of Trends Research Institute, several days ago -- and the future he predicts looks bleak indeed. In fact, as Mr. Celente sees it, the Great Depression will seem like a mild recession as what waits for us in 2011 hits with the force of a Katrina financial hurricane.
In case you’re wondering who Mr. Celente is (if this is still possible), he’s appeared -- along with his predictions -- on Oprah, CNBC, Reuters, NBC, PBS, BBC, the Glenn Beck Show -- the list goes on an on. His Trends Report has been successfully predicting the major future trends impacting our lives for 3 decades, including calling the dot com crash back in the 1990's.
Mr. Celente's forecast on our impending future is based on his study of history. He says we are bent on destroying our currency, bankrupting our government, and unleashing a violent citizen-against-citizen eruption as the economy collapses into chaos and martial law fascism.
Quite a claim. And God help us if he is right -- again.
“We’re sounding the alarm about the ongoing downward economic cycle”, Gerald told Human Events. “In 2002, we predicted that the collapse of the American empire would fall like the World Trade Center in a thunderous crash -- in slow motion before our eyes. And now it’s happening.”
Mr. Celente follows over 300 trends: family, crime, war, education, consumer & business patterns which TRI synthesizes to predict the future.
“The US is becoming a shadow of what it used to be. Take education for example. The OECD group of developed countries ranks quality of life, education, health care of its member nations. The US is now falling down the table as one piece of data after another shows America is in decline. We’re no longer Win, Place or Show in quality of life, education, longevity… all the essentials where we used to be #1. And our economic underpinnings are failing.”
Mr. Celente puts part of the blame squarely on the federal government, and especially FED Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner, and warns us not to believe a word they say “They’re the same people who didn't see it coming - are now telling us the worst is over, that ‘green shoots are spouting upwards’. But they were wrong before. They’re wrong on this too”.
“When you pump out tons of money manure into this system based on nothing – printing press paper, it’s like giving a patient with a chronic disease a pain killer -- it won’t cure the patient.”
“But let’s go beyond the economics. Our whole Constitution has been abrogated. The president simply writes an Executive Order to do whatever he wants. Nationalize the banks, take over the insurance industry, automobile industry, health care industry…
None of it is constitutional.”
When did the problem begin?
“After Dwight Eisenhower -- our last great president -- the Allied Supreme Commander in WWII – who warned us of the dangers of the military-industrial complex. We've become completely corrupted.”
“We became enmeshed in foreign entanglements. We forgot the lesson of England - and how their global imperial overreach destroyed their empire.”
Of course, the average American doesn’t think that we’re an empire. We’re not like the classical empires of old - raping, pillaging and stealing the wealth of invaded peoples. What does Mr. Celente have to say about this?
“What we’re doing is squandering our wealth, our resources, the genius of our scientists and the future of our children. We’re over-consuming in every way -- but under consuming our education and focusing on the quantity, not the quality, of what we’ve built. So much of today’s culture is counter-productive to what American built it’s foundation on -- a high-quality producing nation building things, not pushing paper.
"And we’ve become not only a consumer society but a low-quality consumer, as well as the most obese society in the world, eating low-quality high-carb, high-fat processed foods.”
“We’re now focused on the lowest cost, the lowest common denominator. Not the best and highest quality. We advertise buying cheapest as the most important thing.”
Mr. Celente argues that we’ve socially destroyed our productivity and have abandoned it to other countries.
“And we have fallen into a moral vacuum. Look at how people used to dress. Smartly. Not like the cheap hoods of today. Fashion now copies the lowest common denominator. Our children wear clothes without belts, and shoes without shoelaces, to copy the styles of the violent criminals -- who have these items removed by the police in prison so they can’t be used as weapons. That’s become the fashion statement of today’s youth. Like rap music from the ghetto. We’ve become an underdeveloped nation.”
Mr. Celente observes that "people used to think of America as that shining beacon on the hill with 'liberty and justice for all…' ." So what happened?
"Morality is missing from our American public consciousness. Start with Wall Street. It’s run by a criminal gang. The only question is ‘how much can you make, how much can you steal?’ At the bottom, the welfare recipient says ‘how much can I take?’ And the government is in on the take."
“Morality is absolutely the issue. We had a government where we were taught all our lives that we are a free enterprise system -- so we depend on our own strength, our entrepreneurial ideas. The world used to look to us for our innovative spirit.”
“This is being destroyed before our eyes. And our government has become more interventionist than any of the old empires could imagine.”
"Our society is now based on consumption -- 70% of the GDP. This is more than we produce. So to pay our bills, we use funny money invented in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve and the fiat dollar based on credit (debt) -- the fractional reserve system. In 1930's you bought what you could afford. You saved up to buy your home. The easy credit of the 90's has destroyed the country. Now you borrow what you can’t afford - and the nation’s done the same."
Mr. Celente predicts the use of printing press money will cause the "greater depression".
"I predict continuing deflation of real estate, followed by extreme currency inflation -- ultimately becoming worthless. This is why gold is the only honest money -- the government can't counterfeit it. Look for it to top at least $2000 an ounce"
"Our unemployment numbers are also bogus. For example, the construction industry is really above 20% , and the government is creating low-level jobs, not real jobs. The US total real unemployment is more like 16%. Before the crisis is over, it will reach 25% - great depression numbers."
"When people have lost everything they have nothing to lose. Violence and crime will explode. Look at the OECD figures. The number of people not graduating from high school is exploding -- they're wacked out on drugs. New York City will look like Mexico City in a few years. The collapse of morality from top down -- and especially in the government -- makes it inevitable."
"What can we expect in the coming future", we asked.
"Washington has declared 'Economic Martial Law'. Wall Street is putting Main Street out of business. The key to watch is Christmas sales. They’ll fail. Christmas will be when reality sets in."
"Another trend we wrote about over 2 years ago was the tax revolt. What’s happened? Tax revenues have collapsed by 33%. And the wealthy people are leaving."
"We predict state secessionist movements will rival the breakup of the Soviet Union."
"The only way we can ever recover is to return to individual community, personal responsibility, local government. Next, average will disappear, Quality will return. Look at GM. Junk cars financed by junk bonds. Now owned by a junk government. As a consumer, don’t consume quantity -- consume quality."
"How will it all end?", we queried. Will the dollar survive?
"The dot com bubble should have burst and gone away in a short sharp recession. But the boys at the Fed re-inflated the economy by lowering interest rates to a 46 year low -- and in turn created the real estate bubble -- much bigger than the dot com bubble. "
"Now they’re creating the bailout bubble -- which will ultimately dwarf the real estate bubble. It will cause the implosion of the global economy world wide -- which will not be able to be repaired by creating yet another bubble. Every time the government fails, it tells a bigger lie and then a still bigger lie."
"These previous bubbles were not allowed to pop -- but they didn’t destroy the infrastructure of the country. This bailout bubble will."
"But this bubble will be the last one. After the final blowout of the bailout bubble, we are concerned that the government will take the nation into war. This is a historical precedent that’s been done over and over again."
"So, it’s not that the dollar that will survive. We may not even survive. Look at the German mess after WWI. It gave rise to Fascism and WWII. The next war will be fought with weapons of mass destruction."
Human Events had the opportunity to interview forecaster extraordinaire Gerald Celente, President of Trends Research Institute, several days ago -- and the future he predicts looks bleak indeed. In fact, as Mr. Celente sees it, the Great Depression will seem like a mild recession as what waits for us in 2011 hits with the force of a Katrina financial hurricane.
In case you’re wondering who Mr. Celente is (if this is still possible), he’s appeared -- along with his predictions -- on Oprah, CNBC, Reuters, NBC, PBS, BBC, the Glenn Beck Show -- the list goes on an on. His Trends Report has been successfully predicting the major future trends impacting our lives for 3 decades, including calling the dot com crash back in the 1990's.
Mr. Celente's forecast on our impending future is based on his study of history. He says we are bent on destroying our currency, bankrupting our government, and unleashing a violent citizen-against-citizen eruption as the economy collapses into chaos and martial law fascism.
Quite a claim. And God help us if he is right -- again.
“We’re sounding the alarm about the ongoing downward economic cycle”, Gerald told Human Events. “In 2002, we predicted that the collapse of the American empire would fall like the World Trade Center in a thunderous crash -- in slow motion before our eyes. And now it’s happening.”
Mr. Celente follows over 300 trends: family, crime, war, education, consumer & business patterns which TRI synthesizes to predict the future.
“The US is becoming a shadow of what it used to be. Take education for example. The OECD group of developed countries ranks quality of life, education, health care of its member nations. The US is now falling down the table as one piece of data after another shows America is in decline. We’re no longer Win, Place or Show in quality of life, education, longevity… all the essentials where we used to be #1. And our economic underpinnings are failing.”
Mr. Celente puts part of the blame squarely on the federal government, and especially FED Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner, and warns us not to believe a word they say “They’re the same people who didn't see it coming - are now telling us the worst is over, that ‘green shoots are spouting upwards’. But they were wrong before. They’re wrong on this too”.
“When you pump out tons of money manure into this system based on nothing – printing press paper, it’s like giving a patient with a chronic disease a pain killer -- it won’t cure the patient.”
“But let’s go beyond the economics. Our whole Constitution has been abrogated. The president simply writes an Executive Order to do whatever he wants. Nationalize the banks, take over the insurance industry, automobile industry, health care industry…
None of it is constitutional.”
When did the problem begin?
“After Dwight Eisenhower -- our last great president -- the Allied Supreme Commander in WWII – who warned us of the dangers of the military-industrial complex. We've become completely corrupted.”
“We became enmeshed in foreign entanglements. We forgot the lesson of England - and how their global imperial overreach destroyed their empire.”
Of course, the average American doesn’t think that we’re an empire. We’re not like the classical empires of old - raping, pillaging and stealing the wealth of invaded peoples. What does Mr. Celente have to say about this?
“What we’re doing is squandering our wealth, our resources, the genius of our scientists and the future of our children. We’re over-consuming in every way -- but under consuming our education and focusing on the quantity, not the quality, of what we’ve built. So much of today’s culture is counter-productive to what American built it’s foundation on -- a high-quality producing nation building things, not pushing paper.
"And we’ve become not only a consumer society but a low-quality consumer, as well as the most obese society in the world, eating low-quality high-carb, high-fat processed foods.”
“We’re now focused on the lowest cost, the lowest common denominator. Not the best and highest quality. We advertise buying cheapest as the most important thing.”
Mr. Celente argues that we’ve socially destroyed our productivity and have abandoned it to other countries.
“And we have fallen into a moral vacuum. Look at how people used to dress. Smartly. Not like the cheap hoods of today. Fashion now copies the lowest common denominator. Our children wear clothes without belts, and shoes without shoelaces, to copy the styles of the violent criminals -- who have these items removed by the police in prison so they can’t be used as weapons. That’s become the fashion statement of today’s youth. Like rap music from the ghetto. We’ve become an underdeveloped nation.”
Mr. Celente observes that "people used to think of America as that shining beacon on the hill with 'liberty and justice for all…' ." So what happened?
"Morality is missing from our American public consciousness. Start with Wall Street. It’s run by a criminal gang. The only question is ‘how much can you make, how much can you steal?’ At the bottom, the welfare recipient says ‘how much can I take?’ And the government is in on the take."
“Morality is absolutely the issue. We had a government where we were taught all our lives that we are a free enterprise system -- so we depend on our own strength, our entrepreneurial ideas. The world used to look to us for our innovative spirit.”
“This is being destroyed before our eyes. And our government has become more interventionist than any of the old empires could imagine.”
"Our society is now based on consumption -- 70% of the GDP. This is more than we produce. So to pay our bills, we use funny money invented in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve and the fiat dollar based on credit (debt) -- the fractional reserve system. In 1930's you bought what you could afford. You saved up to buy your home. The easy credit of the 90's has destroyed the country. Now you borrow what you can’t afford - and the nation’s done the same."
Mr. Celente predicts the use of printing press money will cause the "greater depression".
"I predict continuing deflation of real estate, followed by extreme currency inflation -- ultimately becoming worthless. This is why gold is the only honest money -- the government can't counterfeit it. Look for it to top at least $2000 an ounce"
"Our unemployment numbers are also bogus. For example, the construction industry is really above 20% , and the government is creating low-level jobs, not real jobs. The US total real unemployment is more like 16%. Before the crisis is over, it will reach 25% - great depression numbers."
"When people have lost everything they have nothing to lose. Violence and crime will explode. Look at the OECD figures. The number of people not graduating from high school is exploding -- they're wacked out on drugs. New York City will look like Mexico City in a few years. The collapse of morality from top down -- and especially in the government -- makes it inevitable."
"What can we expect in the coming future", we asked.
"Washington has declared 'Economic Martial Law'. Wall Street is putting Main Street out of business. The key to watch is Christmas sales. They’ll fail. Christmas will be when reality sets in."
"Another trend we wrote about over 2 years ago was the tax revolt. What’s happened? Tax revenues have collapsed by 33%. And the wealthy people are leaving."
"We predict state secessionist movements will rival the breakup of the Soviet Union."
"The only way we can ever recover is to return to individual community, personal responsibility, local government. Next, average will disappear, Quality will return. Look at GM. Junk cars financed by junk bonds. Now owned by a junk government. As a consumer, don’t consume quantity -- consume quality."
"How will it all end?", we queried. Will the dollar survive?
"The dot com bubble should have burst and gone away in a short sharp recession. But the boys at the Fed re-inflated the economy by lowering interest rates to a 46 year low -- and in turn created the real estate bubble -- much bigger than the dot com bubble. "
"Now they’re creating the bailout bubble -- which will ultimately dwarf the real estate bubble. It will cause the implosion of the global economy world wide -- which will not be able to be repaired by creating yet another bubble. Every time the government fails, it tells a bigger lie and then a still bigger lie."
"These previous bubbles were not allowed to pop -- but they didn’t destroy the infrastructure of the country. This bailout bubble will."
"But this bubble will be the last one. After the final blowout of the bailout bubble, we are concerned that the government will take the nation into war. This is a historical precedent that’s been done over and over again."
"So, it’s not that the dollar that will survive. We may not even survive. Look at the German mess after WWI. It gave rise to Fascism and WWII. The next war will be fought with weapons of mass destruction."
CBO: Debt Will Rise to 90% of GDP
President Obama's fiscal 2011 budget will generate nearly $10 trillion in cumulative budget deficits over the next 10 years, $1.2 trillion more than the administration projected, and raise the federal debt to 90 percent of the nation's economic output by 2020, the Congressional Budget Office reported Thursday.
In its 2011 budget, which the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) released Feb. 1, the administration projected a 10-year deficit total of $8.53 trillion. After looking it over, CBO said in its final analysis, released Thursday, that the president's budget would generate a combined $9.75 trillion in deficits over the next decade.
"An additional $1.2 trillion in debt dumped on [GDP] to our children makes a huge difference," said Brian Riedl, a budget analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation. "That represents an additional debt of $10,000 per household above and beyond the federal debt they are already carrying."
The federal public debt, which was $6.3 trillion ($56,000 per household) when Mr. Obama entered office amid an economic crisis, totals $8.2 trillion ($72,000 per household) today, and it's headed toward $20.3 trillion (more than $170,000 per household) in 2020, according to CBO's deficit estimates.
That figure would equal 90 percent of the estimated gross domestic product in 2020, up from 40 percent at the end of fiscal 2008. By comparison, America's debt-to-GDP ratio peaked at 109 percent at the end of World War II, while the ratio for economically troubled Greece hit 115 percent last year.
"That level of debt is extremely problematic, particularly given the upward debt path beyond the 10-year budget window," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
For countries with debt-to-GDP ratios "above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by 1 percent, and average growth falls considerably more," according to a recent research paper by economists Kenneth S. Rogoff of Harvard and Carmen M. Reinhart of the University of Maryland.
CBO projected the 2011 deficit will be $1.34 trillion, not much different from the administration's estimate of $1.27 trillion. However, CBO's estimate of the 2020 deficit at $1.25 trillion significantly exceeds the administration's $1 trillion estimate.
"The biggest part of the deficit difference is lower tax revenue due to the different economic assumptions," said James R. Horney, a federal-budget analyst at the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. "The administration assumes GDP and incomes will be higher, and that translates into higher revenues than CBO expects. Relatively small differences in economic assumptions can add up to big differences over 10 years."
While Ms. MacGuineas agreed that "economic forecasts have a large impact on budgetary projections," she cautioned that such differing assumptions, often called the "rosy scenario," could account for just $350 billion of the 10-year, $1.2 trillion difference between the White House and CBO.
The president has established a fiscal commission to propose actions to reach his goal of balancing the budget by 2015, except for net interest payments, which CBO projects to total $520 billion that year. The president's budget, however, will generate a $793 billion deficit in 2015, according to CBO.
"The proposed budget is woefully insufficient to achieve the president's goal or the important fiscal goal of stabilizing the debt at a reasonable level in the medium and long term," Ms. MacGuineas said.
The CBO and the administration expect the deficit for fiscal 2010, which ends Sept. 30, to approximate $1.5 trillion and exceed 10 percent of GDP, the first time that threshold will have been reached since World War II. Before last year's deficit reached an eye-popping 9.9 percent of GDP, the biggest postwar deficit was 6 percent of GDP in fiscal 1983.
In addition to the free-spending fiscal policy the U.S. government will pursue, monetary policy will remain loose in the near term, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told a congressional committee Thursday.
Citing still-fragile economic conditions and noting the low level of inflation, Mr. Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee that the Fed would maintain historically low short-term interest rates for the time being.
Tightening would not begin until the "expansion matures," he said, though he did not provide a specific timetable for ratcheting up interest rates.
Indicative of the economy's ongoing fragility, especially in the labor market, was the fact that first-time claims for unemployment benefits were still a relatively high 442,000 last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number was a decline of 14,000 over the previous week's seasonally adjusted number.
Economists disagree over the propriety of running a $1.5 trillion deficit this year as the economy shifts into recovery mode. But they generally agree that budget deficits should proceed along a consistent, downward path as the expansion matures. Most economists, therefore, fear the prospect of rising deficits in the latter part of this decade, long after steady economic growth has returned and unemployment has plunged.
In a worrisome development, CBO projects that federal budget deficits, after dropping sharply, then will begin to rise continuously from 4.1 percent of GDP in 2014 to 5.6 percent in 2020.
For the 2016-20 period, CBO estimates that deficits will average more than 5 percent of GDP, even while assuming the economy will be near full employment, with an average jobless rate of 5 percent during that same five-year period.
One economist concerned about unsustainable fiscal policy in the out years is OMB Director Peter R. Orszag.
"Deficits in the, let's say, 5 percent of GDP range would lead to rising debt-to-GDP ratios in a manner that would ultimately not be sustainable," Mr. Orszag acknowledged to reporters on March 20, 2009, two months after the administration entered office.
In its 2011 budget, which the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) released Feb. 1, the administration projected a 10-year deficit total of $8.53 trillion. After looking it over, CBO said in its final analysis, released Thursday, that the president's budget would generate a combined $9.75 trillion in deficits over the next decade.
"An additional $1.2 trillion in debt dumped on [GDP] to our children makes a huge difference," said Brian Riedl, a budget analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation. "That represents an additional debt of $10,000 per household above and beyond the federal debt they are already carrying."
The federal public debt, which was $6.3 trillion ($56,000 per household) when Mr. Obama entered office amid an economic crisis, totals $8.2 trillion ($72,000 per household) today, and it's headed toward $20.3 trillion (more than $170,000 per household) in 2020, according to CBO's deficit estimates.
That figure would equal 90 percent of the estimated gross domestic product in 2020, up from 40 percent at the end of fiscal 2008. By comparison, America's debt-to-GDP ratio peaked at 109 percent at the end of World War II, while the ratio for economically troubled Greece hit 115 percent last year.
"That level of debt is extremely problematic, particularly given the upward debt path beyond the 10-year budget window," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
For countries with debt-to-GDP ratios "above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by 1 percent, and average growth falls considerably more," according to a recent research paper by economists Kenneth S. Rogoff of Harvard and Carmen M. Reinhart of the University of Maryland.
CBO projected the 2011 deficit will be $1.34 trillion, not much different from the administration's estimate of $1.27 trillion. However, CBO's estimate of the 2020 deficit at $1.25 trillion significantly exceeds the administration's $1 trillion estimate.
"The biggest part of the deficit difference is lower tax revenue due to the different economic assumptions," said James R. Horney, a federal-budget analyst at the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. "The administration assumes GDP and incomes will be higher, and that translates into higher revenues than CBO expects. Relatively small differences in economic assumptions can add up to big differences over 10 years."
While Ms. MacGuineas agreed that "economic forecasts have a large impact on budgetary projections," she cautioned that such differing assumptions, often called the "rosy scenario," could account for just $350 billion of the 10-year, $1.2 trillion difference between the White House and CBO.
The president has established a fiscal commission to propose actions to reach his goal of balancing the budget by 2015, except for net interest payments, which CBO projects to total $520 billion that year. The president's budget, however, will generate a $793 billion deficit in 2015, according to CBO.
"The proposed budget is woefully insufficient to achieve the president's goal or the important fiscal goal of stabilizing the debt at a reasonable level in the medium and long term," Ms. MacGuineas said.
The CBO and the administration expect the deficit for fiscal 2010, which ends Sept. 30, to approximate $1.5 trillion and exceed 10 percent of GDP, the first time that threshold will have been reached since World War II. Before last year's deficit reached an eye-popping 9.9 percent of GDP, the biggest postwar deficit was 6 percent of GDP in fiscal 1983.
In addition to the free-spending fiscal policy the U.S. government will pursue, monetary policy will remain loose in the near term, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told a congressional committee Thursday.
Citing still-fragile economic conditions and noting the low level of inflation, Mr. Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee that the Fed would maintain historically low short-term interest rates for the time being.
Tightening would not begin until the "expansion matures," he said, though he did not provide a specific timetable for ratcheting up interest rates.
Indicative of the economy's ongoing fragility, especially in the labor market, was the fact that first-time claims for unemployment benefits were still a relatively high 442,000 last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number was a decline of 14,000 over the previous week's seasonally adjusted number.
Economists disagree over the propriety of running a $1.5 trillion deficit this year as the economy shifts into recovery mode. But they generally agree that budget deficits should proceed along a consistent, downward path as the expansion matures. Most economists, therefore, fear the prospect of rising deficits in the latter part of this decade, long after steady economic growth has returned and unemployment has plunged.
In a worrisome development, CBO projects that federal budget deficits, after dropping sharply, then will begin to rise continuously from 4.1 percent of GDP in 2014 to 5.6 percent in 2020.
For the 2016-20 period, CBO estimates that deficits will average more than 5 percent of GDP, even while assuming the economy will be near full employment, with an average jobless rate of 5 percent during that same five-year period.
One economist concerned about unsustainable fiscal policy in the out years is OMB Director Peter R. Orszag.
"Deficits in the, let's say, 5 percent of GDP range would lead to rising debt-to-GDP ratios in a manner that would ultimately not be sustainable," Mr. Orszag acknowledged to reporters on March 20, 2009, two months after the administration entered office.
Senate does not extend unemployment benefits
The Senate Thursday adjourned until April 12 without extending unemployment insurance benefits — which expire for some jobless Americans at the end of the month — after Democrats rejected Republican Sen. Tom Coburn’s demand that they pay for the aid by redirecting federal funding or cutting spending.
The Senate voted 49-to-39 to adjourn without the extension of benefits, with four Democrats joining 35 Republicans in voting against. Another 12 senators, split evenly among Republicans and Democrats, did not vote.
Coburn, an Oklahoma Republican, blocked the Democrats’ bill from coming to the floor for a vote, after Democrats rejected a Republican effort to pay for the $10 billion in benefits with unspent money from the $787 billion stimulus bill.
Coburn said in a nearly hour-long speech on the Senate floor Thursday afternoon that to bypass the pay-as-you-go law signed by President Obama in February – which Democrats wanted to do for the fourth time since then by declaring the expenditure an emergency – would be “immoral.”
The Senate voted 49-to-39 to adjourn without the extension of benefits, with four Democrats joining 35 Republicans in voting against. Another 12 senators, split evenly among Republicans and Democrats, did not vote.
Coburn, an Oklahoma Republican, blocked the Democrats’ bill from coming to the floor for a vote, after Democrats rejected a Republican effort to pay for the $10 billion in benefits with unspent money from the $787 billion stimulus bill.
Coburn said in a nearly hour-long speech on the Senate floor Thursday afternoon that to bypass the pay-as-you-go law signed by President Obama in February – which Democrats wanted to do for the fourth time since then by declaring the expenditure an emergency – would be “immoral.”
Dems Subsidize Prescription-Strength Sex-Enhancement Medication For Child Rapists
Last night, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid voted in favor of allowing the federal government to subsidize Viagra for child molesters.
So did fifty-six of Reid's Democratic colleagues, including Sens. Barbara Boxer (Calif.), Arlen Specter (Penn.) Blanche Lincoln (Ark.). and others facing tough re-election challenges this November.
In addition to supporting federal subsidies of Viagra for child molesters, Reid, Boxer, and the rest of the Democratic caucus also supported taxes on prosthetics for wounded veterans, childrens' orthopedic devices, and an exemption for senior leadership staff from being forced to purchase health insurance from health insurance exchanges, like Members of Congress must do. To Democrats, these things are all simply part of the price of imposing Obamacare on America.
So did fifty-six of Reid's Democratic colleagues, including Sens. Barbara Boxer (Calif.), Arlen Specter (Penn.) Blanche Lincoln (Ark.). and others facing tough re-election challenges this November.
In addition to supporting federal subsidies of Viagra for child molesters, Reid, Boxer, and the rest of the Democratic caucus also supported taxes on prosthetics for wounded veterans, childrens' orthopedic devices, and an exemption for senior leadership staff from being forced to purchase health insurance from health insurance exchanges, like Members of Congress must do. To Democrats, these things are all simply part of the price of imposing Obamacare on America.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
china in control
i was watching cnbc and they had an american businessman on talking from china. he said that china now believes that their system is better than ours and will be the one that dominates in the future. this all has happened since the financial meltdown of last year. when american businesses initially went into china they had to go in as joint ventures or partnerships and had to give the chinese the technology that was proprietary. this enebled the chinese o take 10 to 20 years of doing things themselves and enabled them to catch up to us very quickly. they understood that american companies mouths were watering to get into china with its huge population.expecting tremedous increases in profits.
now they see that we are stuggleing they have a law that new technologies must be shared with the state. they are now demanding that foreign companies use technologies that were developed in china . both manufacturing processing and software. american companies are getting worried that the ability to keep any secrets is becoming a major problem. china doesn't care if foreign companies move out because they have almost everything they need. they also know how desperate these companies are to keep profits up and they see which companies are deriving large amounts of sales and profits from china and know they can sqeeze them for anything they need. he thought that companies are worried about their future in china
THOUGHT THIS WAS VERY INTERESTING
now they see that we are stuggleing they have a law that new technologies must be shared with the state. they are now demanding that foreign companies use technologies that were developed in china . both manufacturing processing and software. american companies are getting worried that the ability to keep any secrets is becoming a major problem. china doesn't care if foreign companies move out because they have almost everything they need. they also know how desperate these companies are to keep profits up and they see which companies are deriving large amounts of sales and profits from china and know they can sqeeze them for anything they need. he thought that companies are worried about their future in china
THOUGHT THIS WAS VERY INTERESTING
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