Oil is heading to US$200 per barrel. This isn’t speculation but hard fact. But forewarned is forearmed, and with this price expected within the next five years, investors have plenty of time to position themselves.
We recently have been talking about tools that investors can use to navigate the economic landscape. The gold-to-oil ratio is one such tool, but another popular compass is the oil-to-natural gas ratio.
The oil-to-natural gas ratio relates more to nuances within the energy complex, rather than the gold-to-oil ratio, which relates to monetary values. It’s the WTI Cushing price of crude oil per barrel to the Henry Hub Spot Price for natural gas per million thermal units.
In theory, based on an energy equivalent basis, crude oil and natural gas prices should have a 6-to-1 ratio. Market characteristics, however, have dictated that since 2006, the price of oil follow a pattern of 8-12 times that of natural gas.
As the chart below shows (click to enlarge), historically the oil-to-gas ratio from 1990 to 2008 was in the low 9s. This means one barrel of crude oil was equivalent to about 9,000 cubic units (Mcf) of natural gas.
Improved drilling techniques and access to immense shale gas fields across the country have seen a boom in domestic gas production. Nor can gas wells just be shut down willy-nilly. The complexities of a gas well mean that it takes anywhere between three to six months to shut down operations.
And while the number of rigs sprouting up each year is decreasing, natural gas production is on the rise, with many of the shale wells coming online with their sources fresh and untapped.
Thanks to this flood of shale gas, the oil-to-gas ratio has risen to almost 17 on average. That is, one barrel of oil is now worth 17 Mcf of natural gas (17,000 cubic feet of gas)!
When we defined the oil-to-gas ratio, we used the term “thermal units.” It is interesting, then, that based on thermal units, one barrel of oil produces as much energy as roughly 6 Mcf of natural gas. So from a financial perspective, the oil-to-gas ratio is very different than in terms of energy.
Some companies and analysts use this disparity to their advantage, using the 6 instead of the 17 value to come up with the “barrels of oil equivalent” conversion for the value of gas. That’s a fudge factor of 2.8!
It’s an accounting mechanism that’s been turned into a completely legal but very shady promotion mechanism, one we watch for carefully.
It’s worth knowing that things can change very rapidly in the natural gas market. We do believe, though, that the current trend will continue for years to come, with the oil-to-natural-gas ratio ranging between 15 and 20.
For long-term investors, the oil-to-gas ratio is indicative of a paradigm shift in the markets. It is yet another tool in our collection of crystal balls for the economy and, if read correctly, is a great way to add some valuable holdings to a portfolio.
Disclosure: No positions
A
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Coolest cars from the Paris Motor Show
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2010/autos/1009/gallery.2010_paris_motor_show/index.html
The OneNation March: November’s Choices Are Clearer Than Ever
They came, they preached Marx, they trashed D.C., disrespected WWII vets (yes, those are SEIU signs), attacked Tea Parties as ‘insidious’ and ‘villainous,’ and they showed the rest of America what vile contempt they have for the Land of the Free. By all accounts, it was a success. For they were finally able to take their masks off—how liberating.From the Left’s point of view, they are now completely, unabashedly out in the open. There’s no more hiding behind bromides and phony feel-good names, the Left has now unmasked itself. Socialists, Communists, labor unions, liberals, progressives and other assorted riff-raff…why, they are all, undisputedly, one big, incestuously happy family now. Congratulations!
And, for them, there is no going back into the closet, no turning back: We’re socialists and we’re proud.
For the rest of America, however, today’s OneNation socialist rally has brought clarity to the choices in the fall. And, here it is:
For Union Members…
For the average union member across the nation, who still don’t view themselves as socialists, there should be no longer be a question of where “labor” sits. Even though AFL-CIO boss Richard Trumka fully exposed his Leninist leanings last week, it may have taken today to convince many of them that their movement has been corrupted and compromised at the highest levels. The fact that their union dues were used to organize and sponsor the event, as well as to pay for the bused-in astroturf to this Marxist March on America proves once and for all that the movement many patriotic union members believe in and pay into has been hijacked by socialists is now undisputed.
[Make a choice, union members: The Constitution and your country, or your union bosses.]
DNC's Organizing for America promoting OneNation
For Democrats…
As the OneNation Marxist March was promoted by the Democratic National Committee’s Organizing for America, their true colors have been laid out for all to see. Now, American can see what “change” really boils down to for the nation. Their, soft, pasty underbellies are now fully exposed. Howard Dean welcomes you to Marxism, and you either support this…or you don’t. Your choices are now clear.
For Independents…
Your choice shouldn’t be too difficult at all. If you really want your independence, OneNation’s rally for socialism should clearly demonstrate that their intentions are very simple: You can’t have your cake and eat…you won’t have your cake at all, their collective pool will. Now that you know, it is time for you to get off the sidelines. Them or U.S.
Courtesy of @mamaswati
Courtesy of @mamaswati #undercovercrunchy
Tiny Turnout: It’s not the size of the Stalin, but the motion of the Marx…
We had been led to believe that there would be hundreds of thousands of progressives descending on Washington on Saturday. It would appear that there was far less.
In fact, according to the Associated Press, even though OneNation had tried to compete with Glenn Beck’s “Restoring Honor” rally, attendance was far less.
More than 400 organizations — ranging from labor unions to faith, environmental and gay rights groups — partnered for the event, which comes one month after Beck packed the same space with conservatives and tea party-style activists.
Organizers claimed they had as many participants as Beck’s rally. But Saturday’s crowds were less dense and didn’t reach as far to the edges as they did during Beck’s rally. The National Park Service stopped providing official crowd estimates in the 1990s.
In 30 Days…
A mere month from now, Americans will be going to the polls to decide the fate of this nation. The two sides have never been clearer. The Left has completely unmasked itself for the Marxists they are and the choice Americans have before them is not the lesser of two evils, it is either you are voting for this evil, or you are not. It is that simple.
The Marxist Left, the Democratic Party and its union masters are in full panic right now. They may be scared but, unlike the real America, they are mobilizing and coordinating their Get Out the Vote efforts to try to salvage their dream of a socialist utopia.
As an American, if you do not want their vision of America to supplant what was once the freest nation on earth, then you need to vote. More importantly, you need to work to get others to vote.
If Saturday’s socialist rally did nothing else, it demonstrated how clear the choices are this November, and the importance of getting out the vote.
And, for them, there is no going back into the closet, no turning back: We’re socialists and we’re proud.
For the rest of America, however, today’s OneNation socialist rally has brought clarity to the choices in the fall. And, here it is:
For Union Members…
For the average union member across the nation, who still don’t view themselves as socialists, there should be no longer be a question of where “labor” sits. Even though AFL-CIO boss Richard Trumka fully exposed his Leninist leanings last week, it may have taken today to convince many of them that their movement has been corrupted and compromised at the highest levels. The fact that their union dues were used to organize and sponsor the event, as well as to pay for the bused-in astroturf to this Marxist March on America proves once and for all that the movement many patriotic union members believe in and pay into has been hijacked by socialists is now undisputed.
[Make a choice, union members: The Constitution and your country, or your union bosses.]
DNC's Organizing for America promoting OneNation
For Democrats…
As the OneNation Marxist March was promoted by the Democratic National Committee’s Organizing for America, their true colors have been laid out for all to see. Now, American can see what “change” really boils down to for the nation. Their, soft, pasty underbellies are now fully exposed. Howard Dean welcomes you to Marxism, and you either support this…or you don’t. Your choices are now clear.
For Independents…
Your choice shouldn’t be too difficult at all. If you really want your independence, OneNation’s rally for socialism should clearly demonstrate that their intentions are very simple: You can’t have your cake and eat…you won’t have your cake at all, their collective pool will. Now that you know, it is time for you to get off the sidelines. Them or U.S.
Courtesy of @mamaswati
Courtesy of @mamaswati #undercovercrunchy
Tiny Turnout: It’s not the size of the Stalin, but the motion of the Marx…
We had been led to believe that there would be hundreds of thousands of progressives descending on Washington on Saturday. It would appear that there was far less.
In fact, according to the Associated Press, even though OneNation had tried to compete with Glenn Beck’s “Restoring Honor” rally, attendance was far less.
More than 400 organizations — ranging from labor unions to faith, environmental and gay rights groups — partnered for the event, which comes one month after Beck packed the same space with conservatives and tea party-style activists.
Organizers claimed they had as many participants as Beck’s rally. But Saturday’s crowds were less dense and didn’t reach as far to the edges as they did during Beck’s rally. The National Park Service stopped providing official crowd estimates in the 1990s.
In 30 Days…
A mere month from now, Americans will be going to the polls to decide the fate of this nation. The two sides have never been clearer. The Left has completely unmasked itself for the Marxists they are and the choice Americans have before them is not the lesser of two evils, it is either you are voting for this evil, or you are not. It is that simple.
The Marxist Left, the Democratic Party and its union masters are in full panic right now. They may be scared but, unlike the real America, they are mobilizing and coordinating their Get Out the Vote efforts to try to salvage their dream of a socialist utopia.
As an American, if you do not want their vision of America to supplant what was once the freest nation on earth, then you need to vote. More importantly, you need to work to get others to vote.
If Saturday’s socialist rally did nothing else, it demonstrated how clear the choices are this November, and the importance of getting out the vote.
Details emerge on no-tax California budget pact
After a record-long impasse, California legislators are set to vote this week on a no-new-taxes budget that relies on a combination of spending cuts and optimistic financial projections to close a $19 billion deficit.
Details of the agreement between Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders began emerging Saturday ahead of a vote by rank-and-file lawmakers planned for Thursday. If approved, it would end a budget stalemate that has already stretched for 94 days.
The state would cut about $7.5 billion in spending as part of the deal, down from the $12 billion Schwarzenegger proposed earlier this year.
To make up the shortfall, the agreement counts on an improving economy and the federal government to provide more money than previously projected.
Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, said last week that the leaders turned to some "creative" bookkeeping after Republicans refused to raise taxes and Democrats rejected deeper budget cuts.
The pact he and the others reached Friday night assumes about $5 billion will come from the federal government, up from the $3.4 billion the governor had projected, said multiple sources close to the negotiations. It uses the Legislative Analyst's Office optimistic forecast of an additional $1.4 billion flowing to the state from higher-than-projected revenues. And it counts on as much as $1.2 billion from selling 11 state properties, then leasing them back.
Legislative and administrative aides said they could not speak for attribution until details of the budget are formally released ahead of committee hearings scheduled for Wednesday, but they agreed on all the major points.
The leaders had been under increasing pressure to pass a budget this week. Controller John Chiang has said he might have to issue IOUs for just the third time since the Great Depression if the week passed with no budget. Treasurer Bill Lockyer warned an estimated $7 billion in planned public works projects could be in danger if a deal was not reached soon.
This is the longest the state has ever gone beyond the July 1 start of its fiscal year without a budget. Legislative leaders have been struggling for ways to bridge a $19 billion gap, which represents more than 22 percent of the state's $84.5 billion budget last year.
To help get there, Republicans agreed to a two-year delay of a corporate tax break that had been set to take effect Jan. 1, saving the state $1.4 billion this fiscal year. In return, they won permanent concessions to close what they described as loopholes in an earlier business incentive law.
The changes won by Republicans affect the way companies calculate taxes on things like cable television and computer software, which Democrats complained would benefit corporate giants like Comcast Corp. and Microsoft Corp.
But Democrats said they narrowed the tax breaks to cut the cost to the state from $500 million to about $140 million this year. Republicans said the cost will be much less, as low as $41 million.
Republican support is critical because Democrats are several votes short of the two-thirds majority they need to pass a budget and tax increases on their own. Senate Minority Leader Dennis Hollingsworth, R-Murrieta, said Friday that he expects enough support among Republicans to pass the budget.
Republicans also avoided proposed taxes on oil production and on property owners' insurance to pay for firefighting services, and rejected Steinberg's proposal to rebalance the way the state levies income, sales and vehicle taxes. They also blocked a proposal to divert more state prison inmates to local county jails to save the state money.
Democrats said they were able to minimize cuts to schools, child care, welfare and other social programs, without giving details even to rank-and-file lawmakers who were briefed during conference calls Friday and Saturday.
Assembly Speaker John Perez, D-Los Angeles, said the proposal protects California jobs, avoids new taxes and shields schools from massive cuts.
"This budget honors all three of those core commitments," Perez said in a statement Saturday. He called the outcome "a solid _ but sober _ deal for California."
However, there is no guarantee all Democrats will support the agreement, setting up the usual last-minute horse-trading for votes.
Sen. Leland Yee, D-San Francisco, wouldn't support Democratic leaders' budget proposal during an Aug. 30 test vote, and is unlikely to vote for an even harsher compromise, said spokesman Adam Keigwin.
"He's not going to support a budget that severely cuts education, social services and health care. His position is we've cut enough in those areas, people are struggling in those areas," Keigwin said.
Both sides claimed victory on one of the biggest sticking points: pension reform.
Democrats expect the Republican governor to complete negotiations within days to win pension concessions from Service Employees International Union Local 1000.
The 95,000-member local represents nine of the 15 state bargaining units that lack a contract. If it agrees to benefit rollbacks, Democrats expect the remaining bargaining units to go along.
Once they do, Democrats could meet Schwarzenegger's demand that they repeal an 11-year-old law that authorized increases in public employee benefits.
"We came to an agreement on pension reform with the Legislature," Schwarzenegger press secretary Aaron McLear said Saturday, without giving details. "He's said since January that he won't sign a budget that doesn't include comprehensive pension reform. That remains the case."
Schwarzenegger had also demanded the state create a "rainy day fund." The leaders agreed to ask voters to reconsider creating such a fund on the 2012 ballot. Last year, voters rejected a proposal to build a reserve equal to 12.5 percent of revenue. The new version would ultimately create a 10 percent reserve.
Friday's announcement came just over a week after lawmakers and the governor said they had reached a "framework" for an agreement.
Details of the agreement between Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders began emerging Saturday ahead of a vote by rank-and-file lawmakers planned for Thursday. If approved, it would end a budget stalemate that has already stretched for 94 days.
The state would cut about $7.5 billion in spending as part of the deal, down from the $12 billion Schwarzenegger proposed earlier this year.
To make up the shortfall, the agreement counts on an improving economy and the federal government to provide more money than previously projected.
Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, said last week that the leaders turned to some "creative" bookkeeping after Republicans refused to raise taxes and Democrats rejected deeper budget cuts.
The pact he and the others reached Friday night assumes about $5 billion will come from the federal government, up from the $3.4 billion the governor had projected, said multiple sources close to the negotiations. It uses the Legislative Analyst's Office optimistic forecast of an additional $1.4 billion flowing to the state from higher-than-projected revenues. And it counts on as much as $1.2 billion from selling 11 state properties, then leasing them back.
Legislative and administrative aides said they could not speak for attribution until details of the budget are formally released ahead of committee hearings scheduled for Wednesday, but they agreed on all the major points.
The leaders had been under increasing pressure to pass a budget this week. Controller John Chiang has said he might have to issue IOUs for just the third time since the Great Depression if the week passed with no budget. Treasurer Bill Lockyer warned an estimated $7 billion in planned public works projects could be in danger if a deal was not reached soon.
This is the longest the state has ever gone beyond the July 1 start of its fiscal year without a budget. Legislative leaders have been struggling for ways to bridge a $19 billion gap, which represents more than 22 percent of the state's $84.5 billion budget last year.
To help get there, Republicans agreed to a two-year delay of a corporate tax break that had been set to take effect Jan. 1, saving the state $1.4 billion this fiscal year. In return, they won permanent concessions to close what they described as loopholes in an earlier business incentive law.
The changes won by Republicans affect the way companies calculate taxes on things like cable television and computer software, which Democrats complained would benefit corporate giants like Comcast Corp. and Microsoft Corp.
But Democrats said they narrowed the tax breaks to cut the cost to the state from $500 million to about $140 million this year. Republicans said the cost will be much less, as low as $41 million.
Republican support is critical because Democrats are several votes short of the two-thirds majority they need to pass a budget and tax increases on their own. Senate Minority Leader Dennis Hollingsworth, R-Murrieta, said Friday that he expects enough support among Republicans to pass the budget.
Republicans also avoided proposed taxes on oil production and on property owners' insurance to pay for firefighting services, and rejected Steinberg's proposal to rebalance the way the state levies income, sales and vehicle taxes. They also blocked a proposal to divert more state prison inmates to local county jails to save the state money.
Democrats said they were able to minimize cuts to schools, child care, welfare and other social programs, without giving details even to rank-and-file lawmakers who were briefed during conference calls Friday and Saturday.
Assembly Speaker John Perez, D-Los Angeles, said the proposal protects California jobs, avoids new taxes and shields schools from massive cuts.
"This budget honors all three of those core commitments," Perez said in a statement Saturday. He called the outcome "a solid _ but sober _ deal for California."
However, there is no guarantee all Democrats will support the agreement, setting up the usual last-minute horse-trading for votes.
Sen. Leland Yee, D-San Francisco, wouldn't support Democratic leaders' budget proposal during an Aug. 30 test vote, and is unlikely to vote for an even harsher compromise, said spokesman Adam Keigwin.
"He's not going to support a budget that severely cuts education, social services and health care. His position is we've cut enough in those areas, people are struggling in those areas," Keigwin said.
Both sides claimed victory on one of the biggest sticking points: pension reform.
Democrats expect the Republican governor to complete negotiations within days to win pension concessions from Service Employees International Union Local 1000.
The 95,000-member local represents nine of the 15 state bargaining units that lack a contract. If it agrees to benefit rollbacks, Democrats expect the remaining bargaining units to go along.
Once they do, Democrats could meet Schwarzenegger's demand that they repeal an 11-year-old law that authorized increases in public employee benefits.
"We came to an agreement on pension reform with the Legislature," Schwarzenegger press secretary Aaron McLear said Saturday, without giving details. "He's said since January that he won't sign a budget that doesn't include comprehensive pension reform. That remains the case."
Schwarzenegger had also demanded the state create a "rainy day fund." The leaders agreed to ask voters to reconsider creating such a fund on the 2012 ballot. Last year, voters rejected a proposal to build a reserve equal to 12.5 percent of revenue. The new version would ultimately create a 10 percent reserve.
Friday's announcement came just over a week after lawmakers and the governor said they had reached a "framework" for an agreement.
ObamaCare, Alinsky & Useful Christian Idiots
President Obama, having a rough go at getting the un-churched masses to buy/sell his Health Care Swill, has turned to the brethren (hallelujah!) to help spread the word about how great ObamaCare is—even though everybody and their dog knows it blows more than the Toro 51599 could ever hope to.
Yep, this past Tuesday, Obama and the director of his Faith-Based Initiatives had a little tête-à-tête on how best to remove the rank taste his health care law has left in the public’s mouth (Try licking your backside. That’s how Ron White’s dog cleans his palate). And they chose … ta-da! … the church!
Quick question: I thought the government wasn’t supposed to meddle with churches, especially in regard to pushing a particular policy? Maybe the ACLU should look into this because we all know how seriously they disdain the merging of church and state. At least that’s what they say and do when conservatives and evangelicals unite.
That said, I’m a guessin’ that churches that take funds from the feds would be an easy mark for the Euro-Socialist, seeing that they’re now kind of financially indebted to D.C., y’know what I mean?
Check it out: Can you imagine if one of Bush’s boys in the faith-based sector attempted to inject W’s agenda via the ecclesia like BHO is doing? Holy crikey! If that happened Keith Olbermann would scream so loudly you could hear him all the way out in Scratch-Your-Butte, Montana.
Matter of fact, Jim Towey, director of the White House Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives for President George W. Bush from 2002-2006, wondered this exact thing this week in his WSJ op-ed, and I quote:
“I was George W. Bush’s director of faith-based initiatives. Imagine what would have happened had I proposed that he use that office to urge thousands of religious leaders to become ‘validators’ of the Iraq War? I can tell you two things that would have happened immediately. First, President Bush would have fired me—and rightly so—for trying to politicize his faith-based office. Second, the American media would have chased me into the foxhole Saddam Hussein had vacated.”
Wow. That’s tight. But … we all know that it’s right. The cry of foul from the Lefties would be deafening if the shoe were on the republican foot.
I know one cat that’s happy with Obama programming the financially beholden pastors and priests to do his health care bidding: the American granddaddy of the Marxist revolution, the community organizer-in-chief, the one and the only, Saul Alinsky. I can see Saul now, sitting in his cavernous abode on the eighth concentric circle of Dante’s inferno, laughing with glee at the gullible clerics who are step-n-fetchin’ to this Orwellian nightmare just like old Uncle Saul thought they would.
From the horse’s mouth …
Alinsky: “Well, the first thing I did, the first thing I always do, is to move into the community as an observer, to talk with people and listen and learn their grievances and their attitudes. Then I look around at what I’ve got to work with, what levers I can use to pry closed doors open, what institutions or organizations already exist that can be useful. In the case of Back of the Yards, the area was 95 percent Roman Catholic, and I recognized that if I could win the support of the Church, we’d be off and running. Conversely, without the Church, or at least some elements of it, it was unlikely that we’d be able to make much of a dent in the community.”
Yep, Alinsky, Barack’s dress pattern for propaganda, is probably so pleased that BHO is following a major point for his prescription for power, namely getting goofy Christians to promenade to the community organizer’s call to dance, that he might be able to crack a smile in his bedeviled dwelling.
What a chip off the old block …
Doug Giles
Doug Giles
Doug Giles’ new book “If You're Going Through Hell, Keep Going!" is now available. Ann Coulter says "Doug Giles is a substantive and funny tour de force for traditional values.” Doug’s talk show and video blog can be seen and heard at www.ClashRadio.com.
Yep, this past Tuesday, Obama and the director of his Faith-Based Initiatives had a little tête-à-tête on how best to remove the rank taste his health care law has left in the public’s mouth (Try licking your backside. That’s how Ron White’s dog cleans his palate). And they chose … ta-da! … the church!
Quick question: I thought the government wasn’t supposed to meddle with churches, especially in regard to pushing a particular policy? Maybe the ACLU should look into this because we all know how seriously they disdain the merging of church and state. At least that’s what they say and do when conservatives and evangelicals unite.
That said, I’m a guessin’ that churches that take funds from the feds would be an easy mark for the Euro-Socialist, seeing that they’re now kind of financially indebted to D.C., y’know what I mean?
Check it out: Can you imagine if one of Bush’s boys in the faith-based sector attempted to inject W’s agenda via the ecclesia like BHO is doing? Holy crikey! If that happened Keith Olbermann would scream so loudly you could hear him all the way out in Scratch-Your-Butte, Montana.
Matter of fact, Jim Towey, director of the White House Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives for President George W. Bush from 2002-2006, wondered this exact thing this week in his WSJ op-ed, and I quote:
“I was George W. Bush’s director of faith-based initiatives. Imagine what would have happened had I proposed that he use that office to urge thousands of religious leaders to become ‘validators’ of the Iraq War? I can tell you two things that would have happened immediately. First, President Bush would have fired me—and rightly so—for trying to politicize his faith-based office. Second, the American media would have chased me into the foxhole Saddam Hussein had vacated.”
Wow. That’s tight. But … we all know that it’s right. The cry of foul from the Lefties would be deafening if the shoe were on the republican foot.
I know one cat that’s happy with Obama programming the financially beholden pastors and priests to do his health care bidding: the American granddaddy of the Marxist revolution, the community organizer-in-chief, the one and the only, Saul Alinsky. I can see Saul now, sitting in his cavernous abode on the eighth concentric circle of Dante’s inferno, laughing with glee at the gullible clerics who are step-n-fetchin’ to this Orwellian nightmare just like old Uncle Saul thought they would.
From the horse’s mouth …
Alinsky: “Well, the first thing I did, the first thing I always do, is to move into the community as an observer, to talk with people and listen and learn their grievances and their attitudes. Then I look around at what I’ve got to work with, what levers I can use to pry closed doors open, what institutions or organizations already exist that can be useful. In the case of Back of the Yards, the area was 95 percent Roman Catholic, and I recognized that if I could win the support of the Church, we’d be off and running. Conversely, without the Church, or at least some elements of it, it was unlikely that we’d be able to make much of a dent in the community.”
Yep, Alinsky, Barack’s dress pattern for propaganda, is probably so pleased that BHO is following a major point for his prescription for power, namely getting goofy Christians to promenade to the community organizer’s call to dance, that he might be able to crack a smile in his bedeviled dwelling.
What a chip off the old block …
Doug Giles
Doug Giles
Doug Giles’ new book “If You're Going Through Hell, Keep Going!" is now available. Ann Coulter says "Doug Giles is a substantive and funny tour de force for traditional values.” Doug’s talk show and video blog can be seen and heard at www.ClashRadio.com.
Las Vegas suffering like never beforeThere are many cities across the country that are beginning to see the first glimpses of the end of the recession
There are many cities across the country that
are beginning to see the first glimpses of the
end of the recession.
This is not one of them.
The nation's gambling capital is staggering
under a confluence of economic forces that
has sent Las Vegas into what officials
describe as its deepest economic rut since
casinos first began rising in the desert there
in the 1940s.
Even as city leaders remain hopeful that
gambling revenues will rebound with the
nation's economy, experts pro- ject that it
will not be enough to make up for an even
deeper realignment that has taken place in
the course of this recession: the collapse of
the construction industry, which was the
other economic pillar of the city and the
state.
Unemployment in Nevada is 14.4 percent, the
highest in the nation and a stark contrast to
the 3.8 percent unemployment rate there just
10 years ago; in Las Vegas, it is 14.7 percent.
August was the 44th consecutive month in which Nevada led the nation in housing foreclosures.The Plaza Hotel and Casino, which is
downtown, recently announced that it was
laying off 400 workers and closing its hotel
and parts of its casino for eventual
renovation, the latest high-profile hit to a city
that has seen a steady parade of them.
"It's been in bad shape before, but not this
bad," said David Schwartz, director of the
Center for Gaming Research at the University
of Nevada, Las Vegas. "If you look at the
gaming revenues, they have declined and
continue to decline over the past three years.
"September 11 set off a two-year slowdown,"
Schwartz said. "But nothing of this
magnitude."
'Not what it was'
Mayor Oscar Goodman said in a recent
interview that he was "very bullish on our
future," offering as evidence the packed
airplanes he encountered both ways on a
recent trip east to appear on "The Colbert
Report."
But, he added: "Our daily room rate average
is not what it was. Our hotel room rates are
bargains now. People aren't spending on gambling as they have in the past. Ordinarily
Las Vegas was the last to go into a recession
and the first to come out. This one is
different. As soon as they feel secure in their
financial position, then Las Vegas will come
back stronger than ever."
The drop in the city's gambling revenues, at
first glance, tracks historical trends:
Americans cut back on recreational travel
and gambling during a recession. There are s
ome signs that gambling revenues, which
are down to 2004 levels, have at least
stabilized. After months of precipitous
decline, revenues increased 3 percent in the
first quarter of 2010, but then dropped 5
percent in the second quarter, according to
the Center for Gaming Research.
"I think we are bumping along the bottom,"
said Stephen Brown, the director of the
Center for Business and Economic Research
at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, which
has been tracking the downturn.
"Expectations are that once the U.S. economy
turns around, the gaming industry will begin
to improve."
What is worrisome now is the nature of this
economic downturn, when many people saw
the value of their retirement funds or homes
collapse. Economists say people are less likely to gamble as freely as they have in the
past, particularly baby boomers, who may
now be rattled about their retirement years.
In one sign of this, while there were more
people coming to Las Vegas in recent
months, gambling receipts have remained
stagnant.
Paying a steep price
The downturn in gambling is just one big part
of the economic malaise. Nevada is paying a
price for an exuberant and often speculative
run of commercial and residential
construction that has left the market glutted.
As a result, the confidence that the return of
tourists alone would spur the city to rebound
automatically after this recession -- the way
it did after, say, the recessions of 1982 and
1992 -- is absent.
"There was a time 25 years ago that if
tourism rebounded, the state rebounded,"
said Billy Vassiliadis, the chief executive of
the advertising agency that represents the
Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.
"That isn't the case anymore ... There needs
to be some real, thoughtful, deliberate effort
to rebuild an economy here. It isn't going to
happen by itself."
are beginning to see the first glimpses of the
end of the recession.
This is not one of them.
The nation's gambling capital is staggering
under a confluence of economic forces that
has sent Las Vegas into what officials
describe as its deepest economic rut since
casinos first began rising in the desert there
in the 1940s.
Even as city leaders remain hopeful that
gambling revenues will rebound with the
nation's economy, experts pro- ject that it
will not be enough to make up for an even
deeper realignment that has taken place in
the course of this recession: the collapse of
the construction industry, which was the
other economic pillar of the city and the
state.
Unemployment in Nevada is 14.4 percent, the
highest in the nation and a stark contrast to
the 3.8 percent unemployment rate there just
10 years ago; in Las Vegas, it is 14.7 percent.
August was the 44th consecutive month in which Nevada led the nation in housing foreclosures.The Plaza Hotel and Casino, which is
downtown, recently announced that it was
laying off 400 workers and closing its hotel
and parts of its casino for eventual
renovation, the latest high-profile hit to a city
that has seen a steady parade of them.
"It's been in bad shape before, but not this
bad," said David Schwartz, director of the
Center for Gaming Research at the University
of Nevada, Las Vegas. "If you look at the
gaming revenues, they have declined and
continue to decline over the past three years.
"September 11 set off a two-year slowdown,"
Schwartz said. "But nothing of this
magnitude."
'Not what it was'
Mayor Oscar Goodman said in a recent
interview that he was "very bullish on our
future," offering as evidence the packed
airplanes he encountered both ways on a
recent trip east to appear on "The Colbert
Report."
But, he added: "Our daily room rate average
is not what it was. Our hotel room rates are
bargains now. People aren't spending on gambling as they have in the past. Ordinarily
Las Vegas was the last to go into a recession
and the first to come out. This one is
different. As soon as they feel secure in their
financial position, then Las Vegas will come
back stronger than ever."
The drop in the city's gambling revenues, at
first glance, tracks historical trends:
Americans cut back on recreational travel
and gambling during a recession. There are s
ome signs that gambling revenues, which
are down to 2004 levels, have at least
stabilized. After months of precipitous
decline, revenues increased 3 percent in the
first quarter of 2010, but then dropped 5
percent in the second quarter, according to
the Center for Gaming Research.
"I think we are bumping along the bottom,"
said Stephen Brown, the director of the
Center for Business and Economic Research
at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, which
has been tracking the downturn.
"Expectations are that once the U.S. economy
turns around, the gaming industry will begin
to improve."
What is worrisome now is the nature of this
economic downturn, when many people saw
the value of their retirement funds or homes
collapse. Economists say people are less likely to gamble as freely as they have in the
past, particularly baby boomers, who may
now be rattled about their retirement years.
In one sign of this, while there were more
people coming to Las Vegas in recent
months, gambling receipts have remained
stagnant.
Paying a steep price
The downturn in gambling is just one big part
of the economic malaise. Nevada is paying a
price for an exuberant and often speculative
run of commercial and residential
construction that has left the market glutted.
As a result, the confidence that the return of
tourists alone would spur the city to rebound
automatically after this recession -- the way
it did after, say, the recessions of 1982 and
1992 -- is absent.
"There was a time 25 years ago that if
tourism rebounded, the state rebounded,"
said Billy Vassiliadis, the chief executive of
the advertising agency that represents the
Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.
"That isn't the case anymore ... There needs
to be some real, thoughtful, deliberate effort
to rebuild an economy here. It isn't going to
happen by itself."
Russian experts flee Iran, escape dragnet for cyber worm smugglers
intelligence sources report from Iran that dozens of Russian nuclear engineers, technicians and contractors are hurriedly departing Iran for home since local intelligence authorities began rounding up their compatriots as suspects of planting the Stuxnet malworm into their nuclear program.
Among them are the Russian personnel who built Iran's first nuclear reactor at Bushehr which Tehran admits has been damaged by the virus.
One of the Russian nuclear staffers, questioned in Moscow Sunday, Oct. 3 by Western sources, confirmed that many of his Russian colleagues had decided to leave with their families after team members were detained for questioning at the beginning of last week. He refused to give his name because he and his colleagues intend to return to Iran if the trouble blows over and the detainees are quickly released after questioning.
According to our sources, these detentions were the source of the announcement Saturday, Oct. 2, by Iranian Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi that several "nuclear spies" had been captured. "The enemy had sent electronic worms through the internet to undermine Iran's nuclear activities," he said. This was the first high-level Iranian admission that the Stuxnet virus had been planted by foreign elements to sabotage their entire nuclear program - and not just the Bushehr reactor. The comprehensive scale of the damage is attested to by the detention of Russian nuclear experts also at Natanz, Isfahan and Tehran.
Moslehi added: "We are always facing destructive activities by these espionage services and of course we have arrested a number of nuclear spies to block the enemy's destructive moves.
This statement is expected to prompt a second wave of Russian nuclear specialists to flee Iran.
The prime aim of their interrogation is to find out if Russian intelligence knowingly planted the destructive worm in Iran's nuclear facilities, possibly for under-the-counter pay, or were the unwitting carriers of equipment on order by Iran that had been previously infected.
debkafile's Western sources report that the hundreds of Russian scientists, engineers and technicians employed in Iran were responsible for installing the Siemens control systems in Iran's nuclear complex and other facilities which proved most vulnerable to the cyber attack.
They were the only foreigners with access to these heavily guarded plants. At Bushehr, for instance, the Russian personnel enjoyed full access to all its systems.
Among them are the Russian personnel who built Iran's first nuclear reactor at Bushehr which Tehran admits has been damaged by the virus.
One of the Russian nuclear staffers, questioned in Moscow Sunday, Oct. 3 by Western sources, confirmed that many of his Russian colleagues had decided to leave with their families after team members were detained for questioning at the beginning of last week. He refused to give his name because he and his colleagues intend to return to Iran if the trouble blows over and the detainees are quickly released after questioning.
According to our sources, these detentions were the source of the announcement Saturday, Oct. 2, by Iranian Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi that several "nuclear spies" had been captured. "The enemy had sent electronic worms through the internet to undermine Iran's nuclear activities," he said. This was the first high-level Iranian admission that the Stuxnet virus had been planted by foreign elements to sabotage their entire nuclear program - and not just the Bushehr reactor. The comprehensive scale of the damage is attested to by the detention of Russian nuclear experts also at Natanz, Isfahan and Tehran.
Moslehi added: "We are always facing destructive activities by these espionage services and of course we have arrested a number of nuclear spies to block the enemy's destructive moves.
This statement is expected to prompt a second wave of Russian nuclear specialists to flee Iran.
The prime aim of their interrogation is to find out if Russian intelligence knowingly planted the destructive worm in Iran's nuclear facilities, possibly for under-the-counter pay, or were the unwitting carriers of equipment on order by Iran that had been previously infected.
debkafile's Western sources report that the hundreds of Russian scientists, engineers and technicians employed in Iran were responsible for installing the Siemens control systems in Iran's nuclear complex and other facilities which proved most vulnerable to the cyber attack.
They were the only foreigners with access to these heavily guarded plants. At Bushehr, for instance, the Russian personnel enjoyed full access to all its systems.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)