Monday, December 26, 2011

Oh My – How Those Obama-Friendly Polls Do Lie!

New Washington Post/ABC News Poll being sited by various media as proof of an “Obama Approval Surge”. But do the numbers add up? Not quite…
his Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone December 15-18 2011, among a random national sample of 1,005 adults, including landline and cell phone-only respondents. Results for the full sample have a 3.5 point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Approve: 49% Disapprove: 47%

Those numbers are now being used as evidence of Barack Obama’s once-again found approval among American voters just as 2012 and its accompanying election cycle begins in earnest. It is, according to numerous and subsequent media reports, the first time President Obama has had a higher approval vs disapproval rating since early last summer – and perhaps a trend that will propel him to re-election victory in November of 2012.

But how to explain what is indeed a rather significant 5-point approval increase over polling data from just last month? Is it a reflection of Obama’s supposed “victory” over Republicans in the payroll tax reduction debate? Although many in the media are this very minute scrambling to posture just such an explanation – it is not likely. Why? Because this most recent Washington Post/ABC news poll, though just recently published, was actually taken BEFORE the final resolution to the payroll tax debate took place – December 15th – December 18th. The Obama “victory” over the Republicans did not happen for a number of days after the polling was actually conducted.

There is more to explain Barack Obama’s “Surge” in the polls though – and just as Insider warned, the cause is, while sadly predictable, no less insidious.

Here is the data regarding the political affiliation of those individuals who participated in the most recent Washington Post/ABC News poll:

Democrat 32%

Republican 25%

A seven-point advantage favoring Democrats – thus favoring support of President Barack Obama!

Now let us look back to the previous poll by Washington Post/ABC News published in November:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Approve: 44% Disapprove: 53%

And here then is the political affiliation of those individuals who participated in the Washington Post/ABC News poll from November:

Democrat 29%

Republican 26%

AND THERE YOU HAVE IT – IN THE MOST RECENT POLL NOW BEING SITED AS PROOF OF AN OBAMA APPROVAL “SURGE”, THERE WAS A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF DEMOCRATS AND A LOWER PERCENTAGE OF REPUBLICANS INVOLVED IN THAT POLL THAN THE ONE PUBLISHED LAST MONTH – A CLEAR CASE OF MANIPULATING THE OUTCOME. IN THIS CASE A 4-POINT SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS POLL THAT NOW OVERWHELMINGLY FAVORS DEMOCRAT PARTY AFFILIATION - ALMOST THE EXACT AMOUNT OF THE 5-POINT OBAMA “SURGE” NOW BEING REPORTED BY VARIOUS MEDIA OUTLETS. AND SO GOES THE INCESTUOUS RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA AND THE OBAMA WHITE HOUSE. AND JUST AS INSIDER WARNED – THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE OF THIS TO COME IN 2012.

KEEP YOUR EYES OPEN FOLKS…

No comments:

Post a Comment