With no end of the Egyptian standoff in sight, a showdown in Lebanon looms large: Within days, the UN Special Lebanon Tribunal'sPretrial Judge Daniel Fransen is scheduled to publish indictments based on the findings of Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare's probe of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minster Rafiq Hariri in 2005, debkafile's intelligence sources report.

The court's accelerated schedule has caught suspects, chiefly security big shots of the Lebanese Shiite Hizballah, unprepared. There is not much it can do but openly flout the court's expected summons for their extradition by force of arms.
The international judges have jumped the gun not only for Hizballah but also for its bosses in Damascus and Tehran and even up to a point in Washington, which has supported the court's work but had hoped indictments would not be ready for some months. The last thing the Obama administration needs at this moment is a second Middle East bonfire.
But whether they like it or not, Monday, Feb. 7, the Special Tribunal held is first hearing in Leidschendam near The Hague.

It was called by STL President Antonio Cassese to address questions of legality and procedure raised by the pretrial judge Fransen. Monday's session was to withhold the names of individuals contained in the sealed indictment document Bellemare filed with Fransen on Jan. 17. This and future sessions will be held in public, so the full list of accused may be only be a week or ten days away from release.

This finds the carefully crafted plan put together by Iran, Syria and Hizballah to make sure that point was never reached coming undone at the seams: They managed to get rid of pro-Western Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and replace him with Najib Miqati, friend to Hizballah and Syrian leaders, whose first task was to have been to disqualify the STL, nullify its indictments and sever ties with the tribunal. But their handpicked candidate for prime minister has not managed to form a government because of three obstacles:

1. Lebanese President Michel Suleiman insists he will only endorse a national unity administration, which would necessitate the participation of Saad Hariri's March 14 bloc.

2. Suleiman wants a March 14 candidate – not a Miqati man - appointed Interior Minister to head the most powerful government department which holds the levers of the national domestic security and intelligence services> He also has the authority to declare a national state of emergency.
3. Miqati is not eager to head a narrow-based government either, because it would expose him as a Syrian-Hizballah rubber stamp and he would be ostracized by the United States and much of the West.

The Iran-Syrian-Hizballah alliance has consequently lost its race to beat the international Hariri tribunal to the draw. The court has begun its hearings, presenting them with a fait accompli.

Hizballah may still cast about for a fast worker to take over from Migati and rush a new government through or, alternatively, exercise force to seize control of Beirut and the government institutions and establish an alternative "Free Lebanon" administration that announce the severance ties with the STL.

These options are fraught with the threat of civil violence.